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25 06 11:06
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The EUR/USD pair corrects lower after two consecutive sessions at a profit, having refreshed its intraday lows on the level of 1.1629. However, further downside dynamics of the pair looks limited amid weaker US dollar and renewed fears of a global trade war. According to the latest headlines, the White House is considering to block Chinese companies from investing in US technologies. If the rumors are confirmed, it may provoke China on retaliatory measures, thus causing a full-blown trade war between two world largest economies. On the other hand, the divergence between the US and EU regulators continues pressuring the common currency, thus limiting any sharp growth of the pair. In the day ahead, the US will publish data from the housing market, so broad market trend will be the key determinant for the pair during this trading session.


The GBP/USD pair came out of its consolidation phase to the downside, having refreshed its intraday lows on the level of 1.3223 in early Europe. The main reason of pair’s retreat remains broad risk aversion, underpinned by fears of a global trade war, as the US is going to limit Chinese investments in the US technologies. However, markets expect that the retreat of the pair will be short-lived and it will regain its positive mood, as markets continue to digest surprisingly bullish outcome of the BoE meeting, where 3 out of 9 MPC members voted for a rate hike. In addition, subdued dynamics of the US dollar is another factor, which is limiting pair’s retreat. On the data front, today investors will see only the US new home sales report, so broad market trend will remain as a key driver for the pair on Monday.


The USD/JPY pair remains under bearish pressure at the start of this week, having tested its 2-week lows on the level of 109.38, on the back of improved demand for safety. According to the latest news reports, US President D. Trump is planning to block Chinese companies from investing in US technology firms. This news has heated up fears of a trade war between two world largest economies, thereby increasing demand for the safe-haven yen. However, further retreat of the pair looks limited, as the divergence between Japanese and US regulators offers support to the pair lately. In the day ahead, the US data calendar will offer investors a slew of data from housing market, while risk-off sentiment will continue to determine pair’s further direction.


The AUD/USD pair has lost part of its Friday’s gains, keeping its positions near the lower end of its intraday range. The main reason of pair’s downside correction remains reemerged risk-off sentiment, triggered by escalation of a trade conflict between the US and China. However, further downside trend of the pair looks limited on the back of subdued dynamics of the US dollar. On the other hand, the economic calendar will remain data light in the week ahead, so the divergence between the Fed and RBA will help the pair to form its further trajectory. But for today the US has prepared data from the housing market, which will be released during the NA session.


Major events of the day:

German Ifo Business Climate – 11.00 (GMT +3)

US New Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)


Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.1569 R. 1.1721

USDJPY                 S. 109.58 R. 110.42

GBPUSD               S. 1.3196 R. 1.3350

USDCHF               S. 0.9835 R. 0.9953

AUDUSD              S. 0.7346 R. 0.7492

NZDUSD               S. 0.6831 R. 0.6961

USDCAD               S. 1.3178 R. 1.3424


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