The EUR/USD pair remains positive on Friday, having recovered from the region of its June lows, marked yesterday on the level of 1.1509. It seems that US bulls have lowered its pressure on the market, allowing the major currencies to recover part of its previous losses. The main reason of greenback softness can be called diminishing tensions in the US-China trade conflict, as the White House seeks to restart negotiations with Beijing, before the conflict overgrow to a trade war. Moreover, it seems that the common currency ignored today’s mixed data on German PMI and kept its positive tone. On the data front, today both economies won’t offer anything interesting to investors, so the US dollar price dynamics and widespread sentiment will continue to form pair’s further trend.
The GBP/USD pair extends its bullish trend, getting closer to the level of 1.3300 on Friday, on the back of hawkish outcome of yesterday’s BoE meeting. On Thursday, MPC of Britain published the results of voting on the interest rate, where 3 of 9 members voted to raise the rate by 25 bps. The market considered this outcome of the meeting as a sign of a possible rate hike in August that positively affected position of the pound across the market. Moreover, the Bank once again pointed out that the 2018 Q1 economic growth slowdown was temporary, and also noted that QE program tapering could begin, when the interest rate increases up to 1.5%, rather than previously announced 2.0%. Moreover, improved risk appetite across the market is another bullish factor for the pound today, which is accelerating growth of the pair. Today both economic calendars will remain silent, offering only second-tier data reports, so the market will continue to digest recent events, thus setting up pair’s further direction.
The USD/CHF pair is trading in the south direction at the end of this working week, keeping its positions near its weekly lows, marked in the region of 0.9900 a day before. Yesterday the Swiss regulator left its interest rate unchanged, but revised its inflation forecast to the upside. However, the overall outcome of the meeting cannot be called hawkish, as SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan reiterated that the Frank remains overvalued and the regulator is ready to intervene into the FX market if necessary. Also Mr. Jordan added that the Bank will continue adhering to ultra-easy monetary policy. Nevertheless, the pair extended its downside trade, despite dovish comments of the SNB Chairman, that can be explained by offered tone of the US dollar. Today we expect a quiet session ahead, as nothing important is scheduled in the economic calendar, so broad market trend will play a role of the key driver for the pair this Friday.
The USD/JPY pair remains flat at the last session of the week, trading around the level of 110.00, despite broad softness of the US dollar. Limited actions of the pair can be mainly explained by reemerged risk-on sentiment on rumors that the White House is planning to restart talks with Beijing before US-Chine conflict overgrow to a full-blown trade war between two world’s biggest economies. In addition, significant divergence between the Fed and BoJ continues to offer support to the pair, as Japanese inflation remains far away from its target level, which means that the BoJ will continue to use ultra-easy monetary policy for a longer period. Today the US data calendar will offer us only second-tier data, therefore the pair will continue to follow the general market trend during this trading session.
Major events of the day:
Prelim. German Manufacturing PMI – 10.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1458 R. 1.1706
USDJPY S. 109.26 R. 111.12
GBPUSD S. 1.3036 R. 1.3374
USDCHF S. 0.9845 R. 1.0023
AUDUSD S. 0.7323 R. 0.7421
NZDUSD S. 0.6791 R. 0.6937
USDCAD S. 1.3261 R. 1.3369
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