The EUR/USD pair again came under bearish pressure on Monday, failing to keep its positions above the level of 1.1600. Renewed weakness of the pair can be mainly explained by increased tensions regarding migration issue in Germany, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel opposes tightening the rules for the entry of migrants to Germany. A tough confrontation on this issue from Mrs. Merkel’s side can cause a repeat parliamentary election. Moreover, increased divergence between the Fed and ECB, following dovish comments of President M. Draghi, who sees next rate hike only next summer, is also putting some pressure on the common currency. As for economic events, today investors will focus their attention on the speech by Mr. Draghi at the Sintra Forum, which will take place during NY trades, while the US data calendar won’t be able to offer anything relevant this Monday.
The GBP/USD pair is flat on Monday, keeping its positions within the range of 1.3260-80. It seems that the bullish momentum of the pound, sparked by Brexit voting in the UK’s parliament, where the House of Commons supported the government, has faded away, as markets await for fresh developments regarding the ongoing Brexit negotiation process. In addition, broad risk aversion, backed by increased fears of a global trade war and upcoming BoE meeting, which will be held on Thursday, are also putting some pressure on the pound. Meanwhile, today both sides won’t surprise investors with anything important, so widespread sentiment will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair on Monday.
The USD/JPY pair remains bearish at the start of this week, having tested its intraday lows on the level of 110.30, as risk-off sentiment is one of the main drivers across the market. On Friday, US President administration said that it would impose tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese import. In turn, the Chinese government took retaliatory measures, having announced tariffs on US goods, including agriculture products, cars, coal and oil. The escalating dispute between two biggest economies increased fears of a global trade war, thus improving demand for the safe-haven yen. However, bearish trend of the pair also remains capped, as last week’s monetary policy meetings increased divergence between the Fed and BoJ, which supports to the pair lately. In the day ahead, the US data calendar won’t offer markets anything relevant, so broad market trend and risk sentiment will continue to navigate the pair.
The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure this Monday, having refreshed its 7-week lows on the level of 0.7425. One of the main reasons of pair’s downside trend remains widespread demand for safe-haven assets, underpinned by full-blown trade war between the US and China, that negatively affects the higher-yielding Aussie. However, the pair managed to recover some part of its losses and corrected to the region of 0.7450 in early Europe on the back of slight retreat of the US currency after its massive bullish rally, seen last week. Moreover, markets also supported the Aussie on the back of recent news that the EU and Australia have begun talks to create a free trade pact together. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so investors will remain in anticipation of the RBA minutes, scheduled for next Asia.
Major events of the day:
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 20.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1508 R. 1.1676
USDJPY S. 110.13 R. 111.17
GBPUSD S. 1.3177 R. 1.3351
USDCHF S. 0.9926 R. 1.0014
AUDUSD S. 0.7408 R. 0.7504
NZDUSD S. 0.6899 R. 0.6999
USDCAD S. 1.3054 R. 1.3286
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