The EUR/USD pair is trading with a mild bearish bias this Tuesday, failing to consolidate its positions above the level of 1.1700. Renewed weakness of the pair could be mainly explained by attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions after recent downside correction. Moreover, it seems that the dust around political situation in Italy has settled down, so the US dollar dynamics will continue to play a role of the key driver for the pair this Tuesday. As for the data, today the EZ data calendar will offer us bloc of local PMIs as well as overall EU PMI report, however, it is expected that these reports won’t provoke any notable reaction across the market. Meanwhile, the US will offer today the US ISM services PMI and JOLTs jobs report, which will be able to form pair’s near-term trajectory during the NA session.
The AUD/USD pair failed to extend its upside trend and now is retreating from its 6-week highs, marked on the level of 0.7666 on Monday, hitting session lows at 0.7625, on the back of dovish tone of the RBA. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 1.5% as expected, however, pointing on a slowdown in some areas of the economy, such as labor market. In addition, the Bank noted that the low interest rate is supporting the Australian economy, so most likely we will witness low cash rate of the RBA for a longer period. The next event for the pair will be the release of the US ISM services PMI and JOLTs jobs report, but for now, investors will continue to digest recent event.
The GBP/USD pair today is trying to recover after its yesterday’s retreat to the region of the 1.3300. On Monday, the pair received notable bearish impetus, despite widespread risk appetite, as Brexit concerns stepped back to the forefront. According to the latest headlines, the Brexit bill will return to the House of Commons next week, after the Lords suggested 15 amendments to it. Those changes include core Brexit issues such as whether Britain should leave the EU’s single market and customs union. In addition, renewed demand for the US dollar across the market is limiting any attempts of the pair to recover after its yesterday’s decline, keeping its positions near the level of 1.3300. Now all markets attention remains focused on the UK service PMI, while the US will also release important macroeconomic data, offering fresh trading opportunities to investors during NA trades.
The USD/JPY pair keeps its positive tone for the third session in a row, having tested its psychological level of 110.00. The main driver for the pair remains ongoing divergence of the Fed and BoJ, as markets expect two more rate hikes from the US regulator this year, while the BoJ continues to maintain ultra-easy monetary policy. Moreover, the next week may strengthen the divergence, as we will see meetings of both regulators, where the Fed is expected to increase its rate by 25 bps. Meanwhile, renewed buying interest around the US dollar and demand for risky assets also provide support to the pair this Tuesday. Looking ahead, today investors will remain in anticipation of the data from the US economy, but until then the pair will continue to follow broad market sentiment.
Major events of the day:
UK Services PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1615 R. 1.1785
USDJPY S. 109.17 R. 110.21
GBPUSD S. 1.3231 R. 1.3439
USDCHF S. 0.9802 R. 0.9934
AUDUSD S. 0.7519 R. 0.7731
NZDUSD S. 0.6947 R. 0.7091
USDCAD S. 1.2864 R. 1.3004
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