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23 03 12:03
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The EUR/USD pair has reverted yesterday’s correction from its weekly highs and is now trading back above the level of 1.2300. One of the key driving factors for the pair remains ongoing weakness of the greenback, as markets are still digesting not enough hawkish outcome of the Fed meeting, where the regulator left its rate hike projection for this year unchanged that weighed the US currency across the market. Moreover, significant drawdown of the US dollar in the pair with the yen in wake of strong risk-off sentiment, triggered by escalation of a trade war between the US and China, also contributes to EUR/USD’s positive tone at the end of this week. Looking ahead, today the EZ data calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so investors will focus their attention on the releases, prepared by the US economy. However, further developments around US-China trade war will also be able to influence pair’s direction.

 

The USD/JPY pair came under massive selling pressure in early Asia, having broken through the level of 105.00. The main reason of pair’s retreat remains strong risk aversion, triggered by escalation of a trade war between the US and China. According to the latest reports, the US President D.Trump signed a presidential memorandum, introducing new customs duties against China. Also, it is worth noting that Mr. Trump exempted Canada, Mexico, EU, Australia and other major business partners from tariffs that means that China remains nearly the only country, affected by US tariffs. However, China’s officials have already managed to respond to tariff threat, calling the US to reconsider their action, while saying that China hopes to avoid a trade war, but is not afraid of participating in it. Moreover, China’s Commerce Ministry has already started the preparation of retaliatory measures to balance US tariffs against Chinese steel and aluminum products. On the data front, today the US will release durable goods orders and data from the housing market, which will be able to spark some volatility at the end of this trading week.

 

The GBP/USD pair trades with a slight bullish bias this Friday, recovering its positions after yesterday’s drawdown. On Thursday, the BoE meeting took place, where the regulator left its interest rate unchanged at 0.5% level. The MPC members voted 7 against 2 to keep the rate at the same level, where 2 of the MPC members voted to increase the rate. Adding to this, the Bank continues to remain positive on wage growth progress in the UK. On the other hand, the regulator didn’t provide markets with any comments on progress made in Brexit negotiations, while again stressing that Brexit continues to be the source of uncertainty regarding economic outlook. Summing up, we can say that the overall tone of the BoE looked quite hawkish, which positively affects the confidence of the market that rate hike in May is still in play. However, traders negatively reacted on less informative outcome of the meeting, but the retreat was short-lived and the pair managed to recover its positive tone. Today the UK data calendar will remain silent, while the US economy will release slew of macroeconomic data, which will bring investors some trading opportunities later during the NA session.

 

The AUD/USD pair remains positive at the end of this trading week on the back of subdued dynamics of the US dollar. However, it is expected that bullish tone of the pair won’t last long, as strong risk aversion grips the market today. Recent market sentiments were caused by the escalation of a trade war between the US and China. Adding to this, mildly bearish tone on the commodity market, especially around copper prices, also limits pair’s further gains. In the day ahead, the US will publish bunch of important data reports during the NA session, however, it is expected that market’s attention will remain focused on developments around US-China trade war.

 

Major events of the day:

US Core Durable Goods Orders – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Canada Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Canada Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

US New Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.2221 R. 1.2427

USDJPY                 S. 104.70 R. 106.36

GBPUSD               S. 1.3988 R. 1.4268

USDCHF               S. 0.9433 R. 0.9543

AUDUSD              S. 0.7624 R. 0.7818

NZDUSD               S. 0.7169 R. 0.7281

USDCAD               S. 1.2786 R. 1.3024

 

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