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20 03 11:03
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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The EUR/USD pair consolidates its positions today in 1.2335-55 trading range, following significant northward rally, witnessed yesterday. On Monday, the pair received notable bullish impetus that could be explained by correlation with the GBP/USD pair, which, in turn, refreshed its monthly highs in wake of progress in Brexit negotiations. Nevertheless, it is expected that the pair won’t show any volatile moves in the session ahead, as we are moving towards the Fed meeting, where, according to market’s expectations, the regulator will increase its interest rate by 25 bps. However, investors have already managed to price in rate hike, therefore, market’s reaction is likely to be limited, while any details on further Fed policy tightening strategy will have significant effect on the market. Today, the EZ economic calendar will offer us German ZEW surveys, which will be able to bring investors fresh trading opportunities, but the US calendar will remain silent today, so broad market trend will be the main driver for the pair during the NA session.

 

The GBP/USD pair remains positive for the third day in a row, having refreshed its monthly highs at 1.4088 spot a day before. Yesterday the pound received notable bullish impetus, following comments of the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and the UK Brexit secretary David Davis, stating that both sides have finally reached an agreement on a post-Brexit transition period. However, Brexit is still needed to be discussed, as there are a lot of unresolved issues, but any progress in negotiations is good news for the UK business and growth. Moreover, this week promises to be full of important economic events, such as the UK CPI report due for release today, and both regulators’ interest rate decisions, which are expected later this week, so any volatile move of the pair will be perceived as normal.

 

The AUD/USD pair extends its bearish tone, which was additionally boosted by slightly “dovish” RBA minutes. As usual, the Australian regulator showed cautious tone, reiterating all we heard before. The Australian economy shows positive results, but it is not enough for a rate hike, so the RBA will continue to maintain wait-and-see mode, closing eyes on world’s monetary policy tightening trend. The market mostly ignored RBA protocols, paying more attention to the US dollar bullish price dynamics. However, any volatile moves on the market today are unlikely, as we are moving closer to the key event of this week – to the Fed interest rate decision, where, according to markets’ expectations, the US regulator is about to increase its interest rate. But today, we will witness another quiet session, as the US economy haven’t prepared anything relevant for this Tuesday, so the pair will continue to follow cautious market trend during this trading session.

 

The USD/JPY pair showed pretty volatile dynamics during Asian trades, having again jumped above the level of 106.00, on the back of ongoing demand for the US dollar. The pair has been trading back and forth this week, having stuck between bullish dynamics of the US dollar, underpinned by expectations that the Fed will lift its interest rate this week, and broad risk aversion, caused by global trade war. However, it is expected that the bid tone of the pair won’t last long, as widespread cautiousness ahead of the Fed interest rate decision is gathering pace, thus supporting the yen, as the safe-haven asset. In absence of any relevant data releases from the US side, the pair will continue to trace market sentiment during this trading session.

 

Major events of the day:

UK CPI – 12.30 (GMT +3)

German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 13.30 (GMT +3)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.2215 R. 1.2417

USDJPY                 S. 105.39 R. 106.65

GBPUSD               S. 1.3832 R. 1.4184

USDCHF               S. 0.9461 R. 0.9575

AUDUSD              S. 0.7670 R. 0.7748

NZDUSD               S. 0.7169 R. 0.7297

USDCAD               S. 1.3004 R. 1.3160

 

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