01 03 12:03
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee



The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Thursday, mostly caused by bullish sentiments around the US dollar, having refreshed 6-week lows below the level of 1.22. Recent upsurge of the US dollar is attributed to continuing speculations regarding more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening path, which was sparked by hawkish message from Fed Chief Powell regarding health of the US economy on Tuesday. Seems that markets have reconsidered potential measures of Fed monetary policy tightening and now investors are pricing-in four rate hikes, which could be implemented this year. Looking ahead, today investors will look forward for Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee for more details regarding further Fed actions, which is the main market-moving event of this Thursday.


The GBP/USD pair was the worst performer of the previous trading session, having refreshed its 6-week lows at 1.3743 mark, on the back of several factors, which are still driving the asset to the negative territory. The pound continues to receive negative pressure from ongoing “Hard Brexit” fears, which is looking increasingly likely lately. The confrontation between two sides, with inability to reach a compromise on several questions, accelerated lately. Moreover, UK domestic pressure on Brexit also adds some uncertainty to the situation, as several UK officials are not satisfied with PM May’s approach to negotiations, saying that she is sacrificing UK sovereignty. Adding to this, bullish rally of the US dollar is another factor, which contributes to pair’s sharp drawdown. On the data front, today we are expecting for manufacturing data from both economies, while the second round of the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony will hog the limelight during the NA session.


The AUD/USD pair keeps its offered tone this Thursday, having refreshed its 2-month lows at 0.7717 spot, despite positive Chinese data. In Asia, the market witnessed risk-off trend ahead of the second round of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. Since Mr.Powell has already gave his assessment on the US economy, investors will closely look at his comments for any details regarding further Fed policy course. However, the pair met some support near its recent lows, following upbeat China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI, which allowed the pair to slow down its bearish rally, as Chine is the biggest business partner of Australia. As already mentioned, today Fed Chair Powell’s speech before the Senate will take center stage, while the US manufacturing data will also be able to bring some trading opportunities to investors during the NA session.


The USD/JPY pair remains under pressure today, mostly ignoring broad market trend, caused by upside rally of the greenback. Seems that the yen appeared worthy opponent to the US currency, forcing the pair to ignore recent upside rally of the dollar, sparked by Mr.Powell’s upbeat assessment of the economy and confidence in reaching the inflation target this year. The main reason of yen’s bullish actions could be called broad demand for safety, which allows the USD/JPY pair to keep its positions in the lower end of its weekly range. Moreover, recent news regarding tapering QE program by the BoJ also adds some negative pressure to the pair lately. Today all traders’ eyes will remain glued to another round of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, while the US macro data will also be able to attract some attention during the NA session.


Major events of the day:

German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +2)

UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +2)

Fed Chair J.Powell’s Testimony – 17.00 (GMT +2)

US ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +2)


Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.2153 R. 1.2261

USDJPY                 S. 105.96 R. 107.88

GBPUSD               S. 1.3650 R. 1.3970

USDCHF               S. 0.9356 R. 0.9502

AUDUSD              S. 0.7722 R. 0.7838

NZDUSD               S. 0.7181 R. 0.7255

USDCAD               S. 1.2731 R. 1.2891


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