25 10 12:10
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee



The EUR/USD pair trades without clear direction on Wednesday, staying within 1.1755-70 narrow range, on the back of increasing cautiousness across the market, as we are heading towards important event, which will be held during the next trading session. The pair remains broadly resilient to positive tone of the greenback today, as investors refrain from placing any important directional bets ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting. It is widely expected that the Bank will reaffirm the need of accommodative monetary policy, while any comments regarding potential QE program adjustments may appear highly influential for the pair. Looking ahead, today we have a pretty busy trading session, which will bring German business climate data and pack of the US releases that will be able to set up pair’s next near-term trend, while broad cautiousness and the US dollar price changes will also have some impact on the pair during this day.


The AUD/USD pair extends its losing streak for the fourth consecutive day, having refreshed its 3-month lows at 0.7716 spot, amid several bearish factors, which are weighing the pair. The Aussie remains the main outsider of this Asian trading session on the back of weaker-than-expected Australia’s CPI numbers, which forced the pair to lose about 70 pips. These economic results sparked fresh speculations about divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and RBA, which are especially relevant in light of recent dovish remarks of RBA officials. Adding to this, mildly bearish tone on the commodity market and shrinking risk appetite also add some pressure on the AUD/USD pair at the middle of this trading week. On the data front, today the US will release slew of macro data during the NA session, which will bring additional trading opportunities to investors.


The USD/CAD pair shows subdued trading dynamics at the equator of this week, staying in the region of 1.2670-90, ahead of the crucial BoC meeting. It is expected that the Bank will keep its interest level unchanged, while some dovish comments from BoC members won’t be a surprise, taking into account the latest Canadian economic results, including lower-than-expected inflation figures and a weak retail sales report. Adding to this, better tone of the greenback against its main competitors also helps the pair to keep its positions within striking distance of its 2-month tops, marked a day before. Besides the BoC meeting, investors will also keep eyes on the bloc of the US macro data, which will also be able to provide some short-term impetus to the pair during the NA session.


The NZD/USD pair remains highly offered so far this week, having once again refreshed its 5-month lows at 0.6882 earlier this session. The Kiwi continues to suffer from ongoing political uncertainty in the NZ, underpinned by fresh news, saying that new NZ PM J.Ardern intends to appoint leader of NZ First party Winston Peters to the position of the deputy prime minister and foreign minister. The market took this news as dovish, as Mr.Peters is considered as protectionist politician. Moreover, positive tone of the greenback remains one of the key themes across the market that also contributes to pair’s retreat on Wednesday. Today all traders’ attention will remain focused on the pack of US macroeconomic releases, featuring durable goods orders, new home sales data and crude oil stockpiles, which will help the pair to set up its further direction.


The main events of the day:

German Ifo Business Climate – 11.00 (GMT +3)

UK prelim. GDP – 11.30 (GMT +3)

US Core Durable Goods Orders – 15.30 (GMT +3)

US New Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)

BoC Interest Rate Decision – 17.00 (GMT +3)

US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)


Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.1714 R. 1.1814

USDJPY                 S. 112.94 R. 114.50

GBPUSD               S. 1.3043 R. 1.3271

USDCHF               S. 0.9813 R. 0.9959

AUDUSD              S. 0.7736 R. 0.7844

NZDUSD               S. 0.6814 R. 0.7048

USDCAD               S. 1.2591 R. 1.2733


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