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08 05 10:05
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The EUR/USD pair remains directionless this Tuesday, trading within its intraday range of 1.1910-40, as US bulls seem to have taken a breather, allowing the pair to stall its retreat. However, the pair looks very fragile lately, having retested yesterday its 4-month lows below the level of 1.1900. Recent weakness of the pair is mainly explained by broad demand for the US dollar and increased divergence between the Fed and ECB, as Fed plans to perform 2 rate hikes this year, while the ECB sees only a slight improvement in the EZ economy, without any hints at further monetary policy tightening. As for economic events, today in early Europe the Fed Chair J. Powell will deliver his speech, while during the NA session the US will release JOLTs jobs report and the US President D. Trump will announce his decision on the Iranian nuclear program.

 

The GBP/USD pair found some support at the beginning of this week, extending its rebound from 4-month lows, marked on the level of 1.3486 last Friday. It seems that investors have already started preparations for extremely important Thursday’s session, allowing the pound to correct higher after its significant downside rally. On Thursday, the BoE will hold a meeting on monetary policy, where investors hope to see much-awaited rate hike, but the latest economic data of the UK economy say that the regulator will postpone this decision. Moreover, the US will release CPI figures, which can be treated as an indicator of how aggressive the policy will be used by the Fed, which in turn will lower or increase divergence between the regulators. But now, investors remain in anticipation of the JOLTs jobs report, which is the only important release for today, so broad market trend and increasing cautiousness will remain as key navigators for the pair during today’s trades.

 

The AUD/USD pair again became the weakest asset of the session, having stuck in the region of yearly lows, located at 0.7473 spot. This time, the catalyst for pair’s decline became disappointing Australian retail sales figures, which even more lowered the odds of any RBA monetary policy tightening in near-term projection. In addition, the widespread demand for the US dollar continues to dominate the market, which also contributes to decline of the pair. And even positive China’s trade figures failed to offer any support to Australian bulls, leaving the pair at the mercy of US dollar performances. Looking ahead, today the US will publish JOLTs jobs data, which will bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session, but until then the pair will continue to follow broad market trend.

 

The USD/JPY pair extends its downside correction for the fourth consecutive session, having tested this morning the support level of 109.00. It seems that US bulls remain exhausted after significant rally, witnessed earlier this month, allowing the pair to correct lower. Moreover, the absence of any fundamental drivers this week, except the release of US inflation figures schedule for Thursday, also lowers the activity of US bulls. However, notable divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and BoJ remains crucial driver for the pair, limiting downside moves of the pair. But for today, the US has prepared another portion of data from the labor market, which will help the pair to determine its near-term direction in NA session.

 

Major events of the day:

JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +3)

US President D. Trump’s Speech – 21.00 (GMT +3)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.1852 R. 1.2014

USDJPY                 S. 108.43 R. 109.71

GBPUSD               S. 1.3488 R. 1.3608

USDCHF               S. 0.9949 R. 1.0095

AUDUSD              S. 0.7467 R. 0.7567

NZDUSD               S. 0.6970 R. 0.7064

USDCAD               S. 1.2812 R. 1.2932

 

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