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09 03 12:03
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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The EUR/USD pair keeps its positions in the lower end of its weekly range today near the level of 1.2300 after yesterday’s drawdown, triggered by cautious tone of the ECB President M.Draghi. As it was widely expected, the ECB left its interest rate and QE program unchanged, however, having revised lower its inflation projection for 2019. Adding to this, during the ECB press conference Mr.Draghi showed confidence in the effectiveness of the current monetary policy, which remains highly accommodative. However, seems that the pair stalled its downside trend, as investors are awaiting for another important event – the release of the NFP report, which is scheduled for the NA session. But on the euro zone side, today the EU calendar will again remain silent, so the pair will continue trace broad market trend until the key event of this Friday.

 

The USD/JPY pair witnessed quite volatile session, having refreshed its weekly highs near the level of 107.00, which was caused not by the results of the BoJ meeting. Earlier in Asia, totally eventless meeting of the Japanese regulator took place, where the Bank kept interest rate at the same level, while reiterating all said before. According to the accompanying statement, Japan’s inflation is still far away from its 2% target level, so it is too early to discuss stimulus exit strategy. However, the pair managed to gain almost 90 pips during Asian trading session on the back of spike of risk-on sentiments, as market’s attention shifted towards N.Korean events. The Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un offered to suspend the nuclear missile program, which forced investors to pay attention to higher-yielding assets, thus driving the yen lower against its major rivals. Looking ahead, today all investors’ eyes will remain glued to the key event of this Friday – NFP report, which expectedly will bring fresh trading opportunities to the market during the NA session.

 

The GBP/USD finally recovered its positive tone following broad market trend, caused by risk-on sentiments. Recall, yesterday the pair received strong bearish impetus on the back of increased demand for the US currency. Recent greenback’s upsurge was mainly attributed to sharp drawdown of the EUR/USD pair, triggered by cautious comments from the ECB President. Adding to this, market speculations regarding “hard” Brexit are also negatively influencing the pound lately. However, the pair stalled its retreat during this Asian trading session on the back of reports of North Korea denuclearization, which triggered wave of bids for higher-yielding assets, including the pound. On the data front, today the UK will released manufacturing production data, however, it is expected that this data won’t bring any notable impact to the pair, as all traders’ attention today is focused on the NFP report, which will be released during New York trades.

 

The NZD/USD pair regained its bid tone today in wake of increased interest to the risky assets. The spike of interest to higher-yielding instruments is mostly attributed to the announcement, coming from North Korea. Earlier today, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un offered to stop nuclear testing, and also expressed the desire to meet with the US President as soon as possible. The increased prospects of peace in Korean Peninsula have triggered a wave of bids for higher-yielding assets, such as the Kiwi. However, the pair stalled its upside, as shadow of a global trade war and typical cautiousness ahead of the crucial data from the US labor market are limiting bullish rally of risky instruments. As it was mentioned before, today the US will publish important data from the labor market – NFP, which is the main market-moving event of this Friday.

 

Major events of the day:

UK Manufacturing Production – 11.30 (GMT +2

US Nonfarm Payrolls – 15.30 (GMT +2)

US Unemployment Rate – 15.30 (GMT +2)

Canada Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +2)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.2202 R. 1.2500

USDJPY                 S. 105.71 R. 106.55

GBPUSD               S. 1.3702 R. 1.3964

USDCHF               S. 0.9386 R. 0.9582

AUDUSD              S. 0.7734 R. 0.7864

NZDUSD               S. 0.7214 R. 0.7318

USDCAD               S. 1.2813 R. 1.3003

 

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