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08 03 12:03
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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The EUR/USD pair was consolidating its positions in Asia within 1.2390-1.2410 trading range, as markets are awaiting for the outcome of the ECB meeting. As it is widely expected, the regulator won’t surprise us with any notable changes in its monetary policy, as we haven’t seen any acceleration in euro area’s inflation growth pace. However, comments from ECB officials regarding further prospects of the economy will be able to spark some volatility. The ECB meeting with the following press conference will remain the main and the only market-moving event, scheduled for today, so during the NA trading session the pair will be guided by widespread market sentiment, which will help it to form a further trajectory.

 

The USD/CAD pair came under bearish control this Thursday, having lost more than a cent since yesterday’s highs, marked at 1.3001 spot. On Wednesday, the meeting of the BoC took place, where the regulator left its interest rate unchanged. In its accompanying statement the Bank showed dovish stance, talking about data dependency and uncertainty, coming from the US economy. However, bears managed to retake control over the pair, following fresh updates on the US tariff plan. According to latest reports, the US President is going to announce tariffs on metal import, which may not affect Canada and Mexico depending on NAFTA negotiations, which is being the key reason of pair’s recent retreat. On the data front, today the US data calendar won’t offer investors anything noteworthy, however, markets will focus their attention on the BoC Governor S.Poloz’s speech, which will be able to bring some volatility during the NA session.

 

The GBP/USD pair has stalled its upside, remaining in the vicinity of 1.3900 level, after five days at a profit. Seems that UK bulls are not yet ready to give up, pushing the pound higher against its major competitors. The recent upside trend of the pair is mostly attributed to the streak of positive macro data, released by the UK economy recently. Moreover, positive results of the British economy make investors to believe that the BoE will implement monetary policy tightening measures, with the first expected in May.  However, worries around hard Brexit are still being weighing the UK currency amid lack of progress in negotiation process. In the day ahead, no surprises are expected, as both economies will keep silence, leaving the pair at the mercy of widespread trend this Thursday.

 

The USD/JPY pair trades in the south direction today, as the yen remains in sight for buyers. The key reason of pair’s recent decline could be called auspicious Japanese GDP numbers, which helped the yen to gain advantage over its US competitor. On the other side, easing tension around global trade war makes investors to pay attention to higher-yielding assets, thus putting some pressure on the Japanese currency. However, it is expected that the pair won’t show any sharp moves later today, as we are heading towards the BoJ meeting, where the head of the regulator is expected to give more detailed information about recently mentioned stimulus exit strategy. The meeting of the Japanese regulator will take place during the next Asian trading session, but until then the pair will continue to follow broad market trend amid lack of data releases from the US side.

 

Major events of the day:

ECB Interest Rate Decision – 14.45 (GMT +2)

ECB Press Conference – 15.30 (GMT +2

BoC Governor S.Poloz’s Speech – 17.00 (GMT +2)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.2353 R. 1.2473

USDJPY                 S. 105.14 R. 106.68

GBPUSD               S. 1.3821 R. 1.3953

USDCHF               S. 0.9326 R. 0.9496

AUDUSD              S. 0.7747 R. 0.7867

NZDUSD               S. 0.7235 R. 0.7325

USDCAD               S. 1.2802 R. 1.3054

 

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