28 09 12:09
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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The EUR/USD pair remains depressed so far this week, entering consolidation phase in the region of its monthly lows, marked yesterday in the vicinity of 1.1720 level. Recent weakness of the pair is mainly attributed to the uptick in the demand for the US dollar, triggered by Fed Chair J.Yellen’s comments, saying that there are some risks associated with a too gradual increase of the interest rate. Moreover, the greenback received additional support yesterday after the US president administration announced the much awaited tax reform. On the data front, today the EU data calendar won’t bring anything important, leaving the pair at the mercy of the US price dynamics, while to US will release the GDP figures, which will be able to determine pair’s next direction.

 

The NZD/USD pair was moving back and forth during the Asian session following crucial meeting of the RBNZ. The pair received some positive impact earlier this session, after the regulator kept its OCR rate unchanged at the level of 1.75%, however, disappointing doves, who expected more dovish stance, especially in wake of recent uncertainty surrounding the NZ election and weak results of the NZ economy. In its accompanying statement the regulator stressed that the monetary policy of the Bank will continue to remain accommodative as long as it will be needed, as numerous uncertainties remain and subsequent adjustments of the monetary policy may be needed accordingly. However, the pair lost its bullish momentum and retreated to the area of its 3-week lows, posted in the area of 0.7170 on Tuesday, on the back of better positions of the US dollar across the market and mildly negative dynamics of oil prices. Today all investors’ attention will be focused on the US GDP report, while several Fedspeaks due later in the NA session will also be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities to investors.

 

The USD/JPY pair regained its positive tone and return to the region of its 2-1/2 month tops, marked at 113.25 level during the previous trading session. The pair remains driven lately by continuing demand for the US dollar, backed by conviction for an additional Fed rate increase at the end of this year and yesterday’s announcement of the US tax reform plan, which are pushing the pair northwards for the third consecutive session. Moreover, the yen remains pressured lately amid uncertainty on the political field of the Japan. As it became known today, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the lower house of Parliament and now markets expect snap elections to be held on October 22, as previously announced by Mr. Abe. Later today, the US calendar will offer US GDP figures, which will be able to determine pair’s further trajectory in the NA session, but until then the US dollar dynamics and slight pickup in risk-on sentiments will remain as key drivers for the pair throughout this session.

 

The GBP/USD pair continues to keep its bearish tone for the fourth session in a row, having once again refreshed its 2-week lows at 1.3362 spot. The key driving factor for the pair remains increased demand for the US dollar, which continues to dominate the market lately. Uptick in positive sentiments around the greenback is mainly attributed to the yesterday’s release of a “framework” for potential changes to the US tax code. Moreover, increased expectations of another Fed rate hike by the end of this year also remains one of the supportive factors for the US dollar that in turn is weighing the pair. However, further sharp moves of the pound seem limited, as investors are looking forward for BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech for fresh insights into regulator’s further monetary policy projections. Besides Mr.Carney’s speech, today investors will also pay attention to the US crucial economic data and several speeches, delivered by Fed members, which will be able to bring additional clues regarding further Fed monetary policy steps.

 

The main events of the day:

US GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.1674 R. 1.1832

USDJPY                 S. 111.71 R. 113.82

GBPUSD               S. 1.3305 R. 1.3504

USDCHF               S. 0.9614 R. 0.9811

AUDUSD              S. 0.7803 R. 0.7914

NZDUSD               S. 0.7142 R. 0.7269

USDCAD               S. 1.2282 R. 1.2582

 

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