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22 09 12:09
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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The EUR/USD pair continues to extend recovery from its sharp drop, backed by the outcome of recent FOMC meeting, and now is eyeing to retake the level of 1.2000. Strong risk aversion sentiments, triggered by escalation of the US-N.Korea conflict, support the main currency pair at the end of this week. According to the latest news, Pyongyang warned the US that it might conduct another Hydrogen bomb test in the Pacific Ocean in response to the new sanctions that US President D.Trump is going to apply to N.Korea. Adding to this, broad correction of the US dollar after hawkish outcome of the Fed meeting and positive morning German Manufacturing data are also supporting the pair on Friday. Today only the speech by ECB President M.Draghi is scheduled in the economic event calendar, so the US dollar dynamics will continue to determine pair’s trajectory throughout this trading session.

 

The GBP/USD pair came out of its tight 20-pips range, seen during the Asian session, and now is attempting to extend its yesterday’s recovery from FOMC-led deeps. Downside correction of the US dollar against its main rivals remains the key driving factor across the market at the end of this week, allowing the GBP/USD pair to recover the most part of its Wednesday’s losses. However further upside of the pair remains fragile, as markets today prefer to keep wait-and-see mode ahead of the crucial speech by UK PM T.May. Today Mrs. May will talk about the Brexit bill and considerations regarding trade deals that could be very influential for the pound, as the EU and UK are still struggling to reach a compromise over the Brexit divorce bill. Moreover, renewed flight to safety, triggered by re-emerged geopolitical tensions around N.Korea, also exerts some negative pressure on the higher-yielding pound. Besides crucial speech by the UK PM, nothing noteworthy is scheduled in the data calendar, so broad market trend will continue to lead the pair throughout this session.

 

The yen remains one of the top gainers of this Asia on the back of renewed risk aversion sentiments, allowing the USD/JPY pair to fall back below the level of 112.00. The sharp escalation of tensions around Korean peninsula triggered an acceleration of flight to safety, thereby boosting demand for the yen. Recently, it became known that US President D.Trump announced the imposition of new sanctions against North Korea. In response, Pyongyang promised to take countermeasures and conduct another nuke test in Pacific. However, further drop of the pair may appear limited, as investors are still digesting outcomes of recent Fed and BoJ meetings, which sparked speculations regarding divergence between monetary policies of the regulators. Looking ahead, today we have relatively empty data calendar, so broad risk trend and the US dollar dynamics will continue to determine pair’s further directions on Friday.

 

Bitcoin lost recovery momentum against its competitor from the US, having failed to sustain its positions above the level of 4000 earlier this week. Yesterday the BTC/USD pair refreshed its weekly lows at 3587.01 level, as pair’s recovery from last week’s lows, marked below the level of 3000, has run out of steam. Seems that bitcoin continues to stay under the pressure of recent news that China banned local digital currency exchanges and trading platforms. According to the latest data, South Korea and Japan have already outstripped China in terms of cryptocurrencies’ trading volumes, which is also negatively affecting the cryptomarket. Currently the BTC/USD pair is trading at 3660.00 mark, while total capitalization of bitcoin is about 61 billion US dollar, according to the data available on coinmarketcap.com.

 

The main events of the day:

ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 11.00 (GMT +3)

Canada Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Canada Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

UK Prime Minister T.May’s Speech – 22.00 (GMT +3)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.1831 R. 1.2007

USDJPY                 S. 111.86 R. 113.02

GBPUSD               S. 1.3430 R. 1.3662

USDCHF               S. 0.9649 R. 0.9775

AUDUSD              S. 0.7842 R. 0.8080

NZDUSD               S. 0.7256 R. 0.7388

USDCAD               S. 1.2290 R. 1.2386

 

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