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03 07 11:07
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The EUR/USD pair regained its positive tone after yesterday’s drawdown, having reentered the area of 1.1650. Today’s recovery can be mostly explained by a deal on immigration, reached within German Chancellor Angela Merkel governing coalition. As it became known, Mrs. Merkel and Interior Minister Horst Seehofer reached a compromise on immigration issue. Therefore, ruling coalition remains safe for now, as Mr. Seehofer dropped his threat to resign. Moreover, persisting bearish dynamics of the US dollar remains one of the key driving factor across the market that also offers some support to the pair this Tuesday. As for the data, nothing much is scheduled in the economic calendar for today, except several second-tier data reports, so the pair will keep following broad market trend for any direction.

 

The AUD/USD pair is recovering its positions after testing its 1.5-year lows on the level of 0.7311. Yesterday the pair came under notable bearish pressure on the back of improved demand for safety, which was caused by weaker-than-expected China’s manufacturing data and uncertainty on the political field of Germany.  However, the pair managed recover some pips this Tuesday in wake of ongoing downside correction of the US dollar. Meanwhile, it seems that the market totally ignored the RBA interest rate decision, which was held in Asia, as the regulator failed to surprise investors with anything new. The Bank kept its rate unchanged while reiterating that the inflation would likely remain slow for some time and low rates are supporting the economy. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar won’t bring us anything interesting, so investors will focus their attention on Australian retail sales, but until than the US dollar price dynamics will remain the key driver for the pair.

 

The GBP/USD pair corrects higher after yesterday’s retreat, but remains under pressure. Recall, on Monday the pound came under notable bearish pressure on the back of fresh headlines on Brexit, saying that UK Prime Minister Theresa May warned the parliament that they would soon have to decide whether to preserve the sovereignty of UK or withdrawal from the EU trade zone, as EU leaders in Brussels are not interested in making concessions. This uncertainty puts notable pressure on the pound, as hard Brexit scenario can negatively affect business in UK. On the other hand, today the US dollar continues to loose against its major counterparts, allowing the pair to recover some pips this Tuesday. Meanwhile, market’s attention remains focused on the UK construction PMI, which is the only important release for today, so broad market sentiment will keep navigating the pair in the session ahead.

 

The USD/JPY pair advances for the sixth session in a row, having spiked the level of 111.00. There is no clear catalysts for upside trend of the pair, so markets are expecting that the pair will change its direction soon. Moreover, today broad weakness of the US dollar and persisting risk-off sentiment are still putting pressure on the pair, thus capping its further gains. On the data front, today nothing interesting is scheduled in the data calendar for the pair, so risk sentiment and greenback price dynamics will remain the only drivers for the pair. However, investors will remain in anticipation of the key risky events of this week – releases of FOMC minutes and NFP figures, scheduled for the second half of this week.

 

Major events of the day:

UK Construction PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.1539 R. 1.1743

USDJPY                 S. 110.40 R. 111.30

GBPUSD               S. 1.3030 R. 1.3272

USDCHF               S. 0.9865 R. 1.0001

AUDUSD              S. 0.7253 R. 0.7453

NZDUSD               S. 0.6628 R. 0.6836

USDCAD               S. 1.3096 R. 1.3274

 

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