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19 06 11:06
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its recovery and fell to its intraday lows, located on the level of 1.1571, following broad market trend. Today one of the main drivers across the market remain the US dollar price movements, determined by the escalation of dispute between the US and China. Recall, on Friday China announced tariffs on US imports, despite the US President’s warnings of a possible retaliatory measures. However, the response from the US side was immediate and Mr. Trump announced additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. On another front, ECB President M. Draghi is expected to deliver his speech on ECB Forum in Sintra today, where markets expect to see fresh comments on the QE program and further actions of the Bank. However, according to broad market forecasts Mr. Draghi will keep his dovish tone in line with previous rhetoric, seen on the press conference last week. Besides ECB President’s speech, investors will also pay attention to the US macroeconomic data, which will be published during the NA session.

 

The GBP/USD pair remains offered this Tuesday, heading towards last week’s lows, located in the region of 1.3280. The main reason of pair’s recent drawdown can be called broad risk-off sentiment, underpinned by escalation of the US-China trade conflict after the US President announced that he seeks for additional tariffs on China imports. However, the main event for the pair this week remains the BoE meeting, which will take place this Thursday, and where investors expect to see fresh comments regarding further Bank’s monetary policy actions. But until then, broad cautiousness will also put some pressure on the higher-yielding pound. On the other side, lowered chances of a hard-Brexit scenario after recent vote in the UK parliament are still limiting pair’s downside actions. In the day ahead, the UK calendar won’t surprise us with anything important, so investors will focus their attention on the US data, which will be able to determine pair’s further direction.

 

The AUD/USD pair continues trading in the south direction for the fourth consecutive session, having tested its yearly lows on the level of 0.7377. Earlier this Tuesday, the RBA published its meeting minutes, leaving no chances for the pair to recover its positions. The regulator once again noted that low rates support the economy, while growth of the employment rate and inflation is expected to be only gradual. Morever, the Bank pointed out at additional risks from the global economy, such as political situation in Italy and growing tensions between the US and China. Therefore, the RBA’s protocols once again did not become a surprise for the market, bringing the divergence between the regulators of the US and Australia to the forefront. But now investors’ attentions shifts towards the US data from the housing market, which expectedly will bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

 

The USD/JPY pair dipped in Asia, losing nearly 100 pips, as risk-off sentiment are gripping the market so far this week. Today the pair came under bearish pressure, following escalation of the US-China trade conflict. According to the latest news, US President D. Trump intends to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods. This move from the US side came after China announced tariffs on $50 billion worth of US goods. Moreover, it seems that the US-China trade war has overshadowed the divergence between the Fed and BoJ, so the pair remains under total control of risk aversion. As for the data, investors will remain in anticipation of US building permits, while any further developments in the US-China trade conflict will be able to bring impetus to the pair.

 

Major events of the day:

ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 11.00 (GMT +3)

US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.1544 R. 1.1664

USDJPY                 S. 110.08 R. 110.98

GBPUSD               S. 1.3194 R. 1.3312

USDCHF               S. 0.9905 R. 1.0013

AUDUSD              S. 0.7386 R. 0.7476

NZDUSD               S. 0.6899 R. 0.6975

USDCAD               S. 1.3110 R. 1.3290

 

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