13 03 12:03
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee



The EUR/USD pair remains broadly offered this Tuesday on the back of attempts of the US dollar to regain control over the market. Seems that US bulls have finally found some support across the market after the disappointing US unemployment rate, which was released on Friday. However, further actions of the pair look limited, as investors refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures, which will likely trigger volatile trades across the market, as they will be able to bring some hints on what to expect from the Fed this year. Also today, investors will pay attention secondary EU data reports, however, expected that the market won’t show any reaction on the EU data amid broad cautiousness ahead of the key event of this Tuesday.


The GBP/USD pair lost its positive traction in Asia, having faced resistance at the level of 1.3900. The main reason for pair’s reversal can be called increasing cautiousness in wake of busy data calendar. First, today the UK budget report hearing will take place, which will include updated economic growth and inflation forecasts for the kingdom, and will probably bring significant impact on the pound. Moreover, today investors are awaiting for important US inflation data, which expectedly will trigger additional volatile moves of the pair, as it will be able to indicate how aggressive policy the Fed will implement this year. Another negative factor for the pair can be called ongoing speculations regarding possible “hard” Brexit, which is limiting potential gains of the pound lately. Above-mentioned events will be the key driving factors for the pair and will determine its further direction.


The AUD/USD pair stalled its recent upside trend amid lack of any market-moving events on Monday. The pair started this week on a positive note, following Sunday’s reports, saying that Australia won’t be affected by the US metal tariffs. However, the pair has lost its bullish mood and stalled its upside rally amid lack of catalysts. Adding to this, widespread cautiousness ahead of important US CPI report and red numbers from the Australian economy exert additional pressure on the Aussie today, thus limiting pair’s further growth. In the day ahead, all markets’ attention will remain focused on the US inflation report, which will be able to set up pair’s further direction, but until then market sentiment will help the pair to form its near-term trajectory.


The USD/CAD pair keeps its positive tone this week, having bounced off 2-week lows, marked yesterday near the level of 1.2800. Seems that the US dollar have found support and now is trying to correct after mixed data from the US labor market, witnessed on Friday. Moreover, subdued dynamics of oil prices are negatively affecting positions of the commodity-linked Loonie, thus additionally contributing to the recovery of the pair. It is expected that in the next few hours the pair won’t surprise us with any sharp moves, as we are heading towards the US inflation data, which likely will indicate how aggressive the next steps of the Fed will be regarding its monetary policy. Besides the US consumer price index, investors will also pay attention to the speech of BoC Governor S.Poloz, which will also be able to bring some trading opportunities during the NA session.


Major events of the day:

UK Spring Forecast Statement – 13.30 (GMT +3)

US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)

BoC Governor S.Poloz’s Speech – 17.15 (GMT +3)


Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.2268 R. 1.2378

USDJPY                 S. 105.89 R. 107.23

GBPUSD               S. 1.3810 R. 1.3964

USDCHF               S. 0.9429 R. 0.9535

AUDUSD              S. 0.7831 R. 0.7899

NZDUSD               S. 0.7246 R. 0.7346

USDCAD               S. 1.2787 R. 1.2873


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