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15 02 12:02
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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The EUR/USD pair trades with a bullish bias for the fifth session in a row, having re-entered the area of its multiyear highs, located above the level of 1.25. The main reason of pair’s massive gains remains broad weakness of the US dollar, while there was no clear catalyst for the sharp decline of the greenback. Yesterday the pair received moderate bearish impetus, following better-than-expected US inflation data, but the pair didn’t extend its bearish trend, but instead regained positive mood on the back of the US dollar dynamics. However, widespread weakness of the greenback could be partially explained by the downside revision of the previous US inflation data. On the agenda, we have several secondary releases from the EU and a bunch of data from the US economy, but the key driving factor for the pair today remains the ongoing weakness of the US dollar, which dominates the markets this Thursday.

 

The GBP/USD pair extends its upside trend for the fourth consecutive session, having gained about 250 pips since yesterday’s lows, all due to renewed drawdown of the US dollar. The pair has consolidated its position above the psychological level of 1.40 and now continues to confidently move north, as the US dollar is still experiencing weakness against its major competitors. Moreover, renewed interest around risky assets, triggered by lack of any important events, scheduled for this week, also provides support to the pound. Today the UK calendar won’t bring us any firs-tier data, but the US will release the PPI print and several regional manufacturing indices, which will be able to grab some attentions during the NA session, however, the main determinant for the pair today will remain the US dollar dynamics.

 

The AUD/USD pair remains better bid this Thursday, as several bullish factor are driving the pair. Yesterday the US dollar received strong bearish impetus, despite better-than-expected inflation report, allowing the pair to refresh its 2-week highs on the level of 0.7965. Moreover, the renewed risk appetite due to the absence of any important events further this week also provides support to the Aussie today. And finally, positive data from the Australian labor market, published in Asia, also favorably influenced positions of the pair. On the data front, today we have another pack of the US data, scheduled for the NA session, which will be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities, while investors will also pay attention to comments of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe, who is going to speak during the next Asian session.

 

The USD/JPY pair continues experiencing massive sell-off, having once again refreshed its 15-month lows at 106.22 mark. Seems that broad decline of the US dollar continues to dominate the market this Thursday, despite yesterday’s positive US inflation figures. Moreover, recent comments of Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso, saying that the current exchange rate of the yen is comfortable for the economy, and he doesn’t see a need of intervention to the FX market, provided additional support to the Japanese yen. On the other hand, renewed demand for higher-yielding assets could limit further retreat of the pair, however, it will largely depend on the US dollar dynamics. Looking ahead, today the US will release Philly Fed manufacturing data and PPI report, while further US dollar price actions will remain the key driving factor for the pair during this trading session.

 

Major events of the day:

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +2)

US PPI – 15.30 (GMT +2)

Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +2)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.2207 R. 1.2587

USDJPY                 S. 106.04 R. 108.38

GBPUSD               S. 1.3722 R. 1.4154

USDCHF               S. 0.9227 R. 0.9407

AUDUSD              S. 0.7715 R. 0.8039

NZDUSD               S. 0.7187 R. 0.7467

USDCAD               S. 1.2385 R. 1.2701

 

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