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13 12 01:12
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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The EUR/USD pair remains positive today ahead of one of the key events of this week – FOMC meeting. Expected that the Fed will raise its interest rates for the third time this year, but investors are eagerly awaiting for the accompanying statement, which could bring fresh clues over the central bank’s outlook for 2018. Moreover, any dovish comments by Fed Chair J.Yellen during press conference may cause a sharp retreat of the US dollar, as markets have already priced-in an increase in the interest rate by 25 bps. Today’s upbeat trend of the pair could be mainly attributed to recent political news from the US, saying that D.Trump’s candidate lost Alabama US Senate race that eventually could negatively affect the timing of the tax bill final implementation. Today, besides the FOMC meeting, investors will also pay attention to the US inflation figures, while tomorrow’s ECB interest rate decision will keep investors cautious, as it could trigger fresh wave of speculations regarding further divergence between two CBs.

 

The GBP/USD pair interrupted its 3-day losing streak and now is navigating northwards, following broad market trend. Yesterday the pair bounced off its weekly lows, posted in the vicinity of 1.3300 level, as the US dollar came under selling pressure, following US political event, which could negatively affect much-awaited US tax reforms. However, increased cautiousness ahead of both CB’s interest rate decisions will limit any sharp moves of the pair, as investors are recalibrating their positions. Today we have another busy day, featuring bloc of data from the UK labor market, US CPI numbers and Fed interest rate decision, which will take center stage during the NA session.

 

The AUD/USD pair extends its positive trend for the third consecutive session, wobbling in the region of its weekly highs, marked earlier today at 0.7580 spot, as renewed weakness of the greenback dominates the market. Yesterday the US dollar came under renewed selling pressure following news that a Republican candidate lost the Alabama US Senate race, which may cause some difficulties for implementation of much awaited D.Trump tax reforms. Moreover, renewed optimism on the commodity market also lends some support to the Australian dollar at the equator of this week. However, further upside looks unlikely on the back of risk-off sentiments, underpinned by upcoming cautiousness ahead of the FOMC meeting and ongoing US-N.Korea conflict. Today traders will focus their attention on the FOMC meeting for fresh insight on further Fed monetary policy.

 

The USD/JPY pair retreats from its monthly highs, marked at 113.75 level a day before, as increased demand for safety and weakness around the dollar dominate the market on Wednesday. Yesterday the dollar came under fresh selling pressure, after US President D.Trump’s candidate lost Alabama US Senate race that indicates a possible delay in tax reform approval. Adding to this, renewed US-N.Korea political drama, this time caused by reports that the US President’s administration is exerting pressure on China to cut off oil exports to North Korea, negatively affects the pair. Moreover, increased cautiousness ahead of the big event also supports the yen, as the safe-haven asset. Looking ahead, today the US will publish inflation data, while all investors’ eyes will be glued to the key event of this week – Fed interest rate decision, which will take place in the second half of the NA session.

 

The main events of the day:

UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus – 11.30 (GMT +2)

UK Claimant Count Change – 11.30 (GMT +2)

US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +2)

US Crude Oil Inventories– 17.30 (GMT +2)

Fed Interest Rate Decision – 21.00 (GMT +2)

FOMC Press Conference – 21.30 (GMT +2)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.1675 R. 1.1825

USDJPY                 S. 113.17 R. 113.93

GBPUSD               S. 1.3254 R. 1.3410

USDCHF               S. 0.9868 R. 0.9958

AUDUSD              S. 0.7491 R. 0.7613

NZDUSD               S. 0.6876 R. 0.6980

USDCAD               S. 1.2776 R. 1.2936

 

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