20 09 12:09
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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The EUR/USD pair extends its winning streak, trading for the fifth consecutive session with gains. In Asia the pair received strong bullish impetus, having leaped above its psychological resistance of 1.2000, as the US dollar continues to lose points against its main rivals. However, the pair corrected slightly lower on the back of increased nervousness across the market, provoked by upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve, which is the key risky event of this week. It is expected that the Fed will leave its interest rate untouched, however, the revision of economic forecast and any comments of the Central Bank members on further monetary policy tightening measures will remain key themes of Fed’s meeting. On the data front, the EU data calendar will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, while the US will publish data from the housing market, which will be able to bring some short-term impetus to the pair ahead of the key risky event of this Wednesday.

 

The dollar/yen pair stalled its 3-day northward march on Wednesday and now is consolidating its position in the vicinity of 111.50 level amid increased flight to safety. Today strong risk-off sentiments dominate the market, as investors held their breaths ahead of the Fed and BoJ interest rates decisions, refraining of opening any important bets. It is expected that both regulators will keep its cash rates unchanged, while any comments regarding its monetary policy projections will be highly influential for the pair. Moreover, ongoing retreat of the US dollar against its main competitors also limits pair’s further upside. Besides much awaited crucial events, today investors will also pay attention to the US Existing Home Sales data, which will be able to set up pair’s short-term direction for the pair during the NA session.

 

Today the GBP/USD pair follows broad market trend and consolidates its positions within the 1.3510-30 corridor on the back of increased cautiousness among market participants. Currently the pair is trading without any clear direction, as risk-off moods, underpinned by the upcoming key event, are negatively influencing higher-yielding pound. On the other hand, ongoing weakness surrounding the greenback continues supporting the pair so far this week, thereby limiting pair’s chances on further drawdown. Ahead of the Fed outcome, the UK will publish retail sales numbers, which will keep investors busy during the European session, while the US will release data from the housing market, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities to market participants during the NA session.

 

The AUD/USD pair remains well bid for the second day in a row, extending its upside rally beyond its psychological resistance of 0.8000 on the back of ongoing retreat of the US dollar. Earlier today, the pair came under minor selling pressure, following dovish speech of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor Luci Ellis, talking about higher household debt. However, the major managed to regain its bullish trend, as broad sell-off of the greenback remains one of the key determinants across the market. On the other hand, further upside of the pair looks fragile, as strong risk aversions grip the market ahead of the key event of this week. Today all eyes will remain glued to the FOMC meeting, which will be held in NY afternoon and will be able to spark some volatility across the market. Besides US regulator’s interest rate decisions, investors also will look forward for the data from the US housing market for fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

 

The main events of the day:

UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +3)

US Existing Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)

US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)

Fed Interest Rate Decision – 21.00 (GMT +3)

FOMC Press Conference – 21.00 (GMT +3)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.1926 R. 1.2041

USDJPY                 S. 110.87 R. 112.25

GBPUSD               S. 1.3425 R. 1.3595

USDCHF               S. 0.9568 R. 0.9680

AUDUSD              S. 0.7932 R. 0.8102

NZDUSD               S. 0.7228 R. 0.7372

USDCAD               S. 1.2227 R. 1.2343

 

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