06 09 12:09
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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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The EUR/USD pair shows subdued trading activity at the middle of this week, consolidation its positions in the 1.1920-30 tight range. Seems that the euro ignores broad retreat of the US dollar, as investors remain cautious ahead of the ECB meeting. Expected that the regulator will keep its policy stance mostly unchanged, while any dovish comments of ECB President Mario Draghi regarding QE program tapering and higher exchange rate of the common currency could bring strong bearish pressure on the pair this Thursday. Today the European economic calendar will remain broadly silent, while the US will release only the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report, so the US dollar dynamics, weakened by yesterday’s dovish Fedspeaks, and broad risk-off trend will continue to exert some influence on the pair.

 

The USD/CAD pair has recovered part of its positions, after yesterday’s slump to its 2-year lows, located at 1.2335 spot. Pair’s recent retreat could be explained by another wave of bearish pressure on the US dollar, underpinned by dovish talks of Fed member Neel Kashkari, who said that rate hike might cause real harm to the US economy. Adding to this, solid performance of oil prices also supports ­the commodity-sensitive Loonie at the equator of this week. Today all investors’ eyes will remain glued to the BoC meeting, which will retain investors from placing any important directional bets in the day ahead. Expected that the regulator won’t apply any changes to its monetary policy after its meeting, however, following Bank’s account statement might bring some insight regarding BoC’s further plans. Besides the meeting of the BoC, investors today will also pay attention to a slew of Canadian secondary tier repots and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers, which will be able to bring additional impetus to the pair during the NA session.

 

The yen remains one of the top gainers of the Asian trading session, sending the USD/JPY pair to refresh its 5-day lows in the region of 108.50. The yen continues to benefit from the ongoing risk-off trend, as geopolitical tensions are still full of steam. Currently the market is digesting another missile threat emanating from North Korea, as, according to the latest headlines, Pyongyang is ready to launch another intercontinental missile before this Saturday. Moreover, broad retreat of the US dollar, underpinned by dovish talks of Fed members, also collaborates with pair’s downside rally on Wednesday. Looking ahead, nothing much is scheduled in data calendar for this Wednesday, so the US dollar dynamics and broad risk aversions, especially taking into account upcoming CBs’ meetings, will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.

 

The AUD/USD pair came under strong bearish pressure during the Asian session on the back of lower-than-expected Australian GDP numbers, remaining unable to sustain its positions above the key psychological mark of 0.8000. However, seems that the pair has stalled its overnight’s retreat and now is wobbling around 0.7980 level, as broad sell off of the greenback has limited pair’s downside slide. Moreover, positive sentiments in the commodity market, especially copper, also support the Australian currency today, limiting its losses. On the other side, prevailing risk-aversion sentiments will continue to keep higher-yielding assets under pressure, limiting pair’s chances to recover its positions. On the data space, today market participants will focus their attention on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report, which is the only important release of this Wednesday for the pair, so broad market sentiments and USD price actions will continue to determine pair’s further trajectory.

 

The main events of the day:

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)

BoC Interest Rate Decision – 17.00 (GMT +3)

 

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD               S. 1.1833 R. 1.1979

USDJPY                 S. 107.89 R. 110.29

GBPUSD               S. 1.2859 R. 1.3127

USDCHF               S. 0.9487 R. 0.9645

AUDUSD              S. 0.7903 R. 0.8075

NZDUSD               S. 0.7111 R. 0.7325

USDCAD               S. 1.2293 R. 1.2457

 

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